While India is in a unique position where its steadily growing bilateral ties with the United States are largely insulated from election outcomes, a decisive Donald Trump victory has significant implications for both India and the broader global landscape, which must be examined. Here is an analysis of the good, the bad, and the ugly from an Indian perspective.

The Good

1. War-averse: Trump has pledged to end ongoing wars, which, if successful, would create a more stable global environment and secure supply chains. This would also ease India’s diplomatic balancing act, sparing it from the direct and indirect pressures of choosing sides in US-led or supported conflicts.

2. China Decoupling: Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially exceeding 60% could accelerate the “China Plus One” strategy, encouraging companies diversify supply chains. India stands to gain through increased export opportunities, investment flows, and a strengthened Indo-US relation as part of America’s strategic counterbalance to China.

3. Reduced Ideological Interference: Trump’s preferred weapon is trade, not democracy. A Trump administration would minimise ideological interventionism in India. It may target those in the US establishment who have weaponised democratic processes. This could indirectly benefit India, which has been at the receiving end of such weaponisation.

The Bad

1. Civil Strife: There is a high likelihood of a deepening of political divisions within the US, potentially leading to civil strife and straining the US economy, with global repercussions. It will pose risks to the Indian diaspora, as well as to Indian students in the US.

2. Immigration Crackdowns: Trump’s hardline stance on immigration could result in reduced H-1B visas. More concerning, however, is the prospect of violence or even terrorist attacks triggered by the mass deportation of undocumented migrants.

3. Tariffs: Given that the US is India’s top trading partner—and that India maintains a substantial trade surplus with the US—Trump’s labelling of India as a significant ‘trade abuser’ and his pledge to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries are points of concern. He has also threatened a 100% tariff on goods from countries attempting to de-dollarise. 

The Ugly

1. Scorched Earth: The establishment, or “the machine,” as Elon Musk describes it, may resort to a scorched earth policy, which could have unforeseen consequences for the US, its economy, and for the world. This “machine” could also consolidate its influence in India’s neighbourhood, keeping the circle of fire around India intact. Any “clean-up” attempted by Trump 2.0 would have likely geopolitical ramifications.

2. America First: The global trade and economic disruptions stemming from the protectionist “America First” policy present significant uncertainty. Trump’s preference for a weaker dollar to bolster US manufacturing could have worldwide implications.

3. Sanctions: Trump’s past tough stance on India over oil imports from Iran and the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system is likely to weigh on the mind of the Indian government.

Key Takeaways

1. With the Trump administration, India can expect less sanctimony on democracy and human rights, and a greater focus on aligning strategic goals.

2. The US-China trade war could significantly impact China’s social-economic-political stability, potentially pushing China even closer to Russia. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities. Russia, wary of an asymmetric relationship with China, will increasingly value India as a balancing factor. Meanwhile, China, having shown a willingness to thaw strained ties with India for improved market access, may seek further improvements in view of its deteriorating trade situation with the US. India will remain a key focus for the three major powers, as well as for Europe, which will actively pursue its own Indo-Pacific objectives. 

3. Trump has promised to protect the interests of Hindu Americans and condemned attacks on minorities in Bangladesh. The Trump administration is unlikely to give much leeway to Muhammad Yunus, a vocal critic of Trump, and will pressure Bangladesh to hold free and fair elections and reduce its alignment with Islamist extremist groups.

4. During Trump 1.0, he was willing to take action on behalf of India in the event of a terrorist attack on the latter. Combined with his promise to protect Hindu Americans, this implies less space for Khalistani extremists on the US soil. This would have a bearing on Canada as well.

5. Narendra Modi and Donald Trump share a strong personal rapport, both are known for “common sense” approaches and a focus on national interests. Trump’s inner circle includes Indian-origin individuals, as well as Elon Musk, a self-professed Modi fan. These factors could make ironing out any differences easier.

6. Donald Trump’s transparency about America-first-driven foreign policy could propel the bilateral relationship forward more effectively, grounded in shared priorities, rather than the empty rhetoric of being “natural allies” while undermining Indian interests. However, much will depend on the domestic situation in the United States, particularly whether there is a peaceful transfer of power and if the country can prevent further polarisation and democratic backsliding.

06-11-2024